Uncategorized • March 1, 2021

Days of Inventory

by Kelsey Vandemark

Days of Inventory

by Windermere Windsor

In the residential real estate industry, inventory is typically measured in months.

For example, the definition of a “sellers’ market” is when there is less than 4 months of inventory on the market. Meaning, at the current pace of sales, it would take less than four months to sell all the homes currently for sale.

Today it makes more sense to measure inventory in days instead of months.

Here is the number of residential properties currently listed for sale in each market:

Larimer County = 255
Weld County = 261
Metro Denver = 1,645

Here is the current pace of sales in each market:

Larimer County = 10/day
Weld County = 10/day
Metro Denver = 112/day

So, at the current pace of sales, this is how long it would take to sell all the residential properties currently for sale in each market:

Larimer County = 26 days
Weld County = 27 days
Metro Denver = 15 days

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Uncategorized • January 29, 2021

Unemployment Is Bouncing Back

by Kelsey Vandemark

Job Bounce

by Windermere Windsor

“How could the real estate market be so strong in the middle of a pandemic?”

That is a fair question and one we hear frequently from our clients.

There are several reasons for this but two stand out.

Interest rates
Jobs

Employment has bounced back much quicker than most people expected. When COVID first showed up, the expectation was that many industries would be hit hard for a prolonged period of time.

The reality is that only a few industries were severely impacted by COVID and the rest were able to get back to a near-normal level of business relatively fast.

Additionally, what we find along the Front Range is that our ‘job bounce’ is even better than the national average.

Here are the numbers…

The COVID-peak unemployment rate for the Front Range looked like this:

Larimer County = 11.1%
Weld County = 10.1%
Metro Denver = 12.3%

Today it looks like this:

Larimer County = 5.2%
Weld County = 5.2%
Metro Denver = 6.4%

Nationally, unemployment peaked at 14.8% and now stands at 6.7%.

So, a main reason why demand is high now is because jobs have bounced back, and the bounce is even higher than the average across the country.

Uncategorized • January 17, 2021

Where are Interest Rates heading?

by Kelsey Vandemark

Rate Heading

Rate Heading

Where are interest rates headed?

This question was one of many which were addressed during our annual Market Forecast yesterday.

Our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, provided insight on rates, prices, inventory and many other fascinating topics.

Matthew’s prediction is for rates to creep up to 3.07% by the end of 2021. They are currently at 2.79%.

The image below shows how his prediction compares with predictions of his economist colleagues.

If you would like a recording of the presentation, simply reach out to your Windermere Broker or reply to this email.

Uncategorized • January 8, 2021

Inverted- Closings Are Exceeding New Listings

by Kelsey Vandemark

Typically, in the Front Range Market, the number of new listings will exceed the number of closings on a monthly basis.

Meaning, the amount of properties that hit the market in a given month will be higher than the amount of properties that sell in that month.

It is normal to have the ‘inflow’ exceed the ‘outflow’ because some properties never sell for a variety of reasons.

As a result, the market remains stocked with inventory.

Starting about 5 years ago, we saw months where the number of new listings was roughly the same as the number of closings.

Then, in late 2020, these numbers inverted. Closings started to exceed new listings.

This culminated in December 2020 when we saw the most drastic difference we have ever seen.

Here are the specific numbers for December:

Larimer County = 267 New Listings / 426 Closings
Weld County = 293 New Listings / 530 Closings
Metro Denver = 3028 New Listings / 4807 Closings

What this means is the market needs new listings. This also means that your home is likely worth more than you might think. If you want to see your home’s current value, even if you aren’t thinking of selling soon, we would be happy to show you.

POSTED ON JANUARY 8, 2021 AT 8:58 AM
WINDERMERE WINDSOR | CATEGORY: BLOG, BUYERS & SELLERS, FUN FACTS, HOUSING TRENDS, MARKET NEWS | TAGGED CLOSINGS, INFLOW, INVERTED, LISTINGS, OUTFLOW, PROPERTY AMOUNTS

Uncategorized • December 4, 2020

Interest Rates Drop Again

by Kelsey Vandemark

14 Times

Microscope

For the 14th time this year, 30-year mortgage rates set a record and hit an all-time low.

Based on data just released by Freddie Mac, rates are now at 2.71%. Their weekly survey of the 30-year mortgage rate dates back to 1971.

Just one year ago rates were at 3.68%.

So, what does this mean for buyers?

Based on a $400,000 loan, current rates result in a monthly payment that would be $212 less than one year ago.

POSTED ON DECEMBER 4, 2020 AT 8:54 AM
WINDERMERE WINDSOR | CATEGORY: BLOG, FUN FACTS, MARKET NEWS | TAGGED ALL-TIME LOW, FREDDIE MAC, MORTGAGES RATES, SMALLER PAYMENT, SURVEY

Uncategorized • November 16, 2020

A Little Perspective Regarding Inventory

by Kelsey Vandemark

A Little Perspective

Here’s a little perspective on the inventory of homes for sale in today’s market…

First we’ll look at Metro Denver:

The average number of residential listings for sale at this time of year is 15,577
The highest-ever for this time of year is 29,722 which occurred in 2006
The number of listings right now is 4,821
So, inventory in Metro Denver is roughly one-third of the average and 25,000 fewer than the highest-ever.
DMAR is the source of the stats listed above

Now, Northern Colorado:

Larimer County has 802 active listings today
Based on 10 years of data, this is the lowest it has ever been
The high in Larimer County occurred in 2010 with 2608 listings so today’s inventory is one-third of what it was 10 years ago.
Inventory today in Weld County is 727 which isn’t the lowest-ever.
The lowest during the last 10 years was 2017.

The highest was 2010 with 1791 properties so today there are roughly 1,000 fewer properties to choose from.

POSTED ON NOVEMBER 13, 2020 AT 3:57 PM
WINDERMERE WINDSOR | CATEGORY: BLOG, COLORADO HOUSING, FUN FACTS | TAGGED INVENTORY, LARIMER COUNTY, METRO DENVER, NORTHERN COLORADO, RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS, TODAY’S MARKET

Uncategorized • November 8, 2020

Activity Increases In Higher Price Ranges

by Kelsey Vandemark

The Votes Are In

Decrease

Real estate buyers made their voices heard last month and made a clear choice for… higher-end properties!

One of the interesting dynamics of our current market is the significantly- increased activity in higher price ranges.

The combination of high equity and low-interest rates is clearly causing people to move up. They are able to purchase the home that has the features they have always wanted whether it be size, finishes, or location.

The considerable equity growth that has occurred for homeowners over the last 7 years is allowing them to have sizable down payments on their ‘move up’ property plus today’s rates keep their monthly payments lower than expected.

Here are the numbers we researched which demonstrate this trend.

Compared to October of 2019, sales of properties priced over $750,000 last month were up:

176% in Larimer County
375% in Weld County
96% in Metro Denver

Properties in the $550,000 to $750,000 range also saw a large jump:

57% in Larimer County
63% in Weld County
83% in Metro Denver

This is a unique time in history for people to move up and own a home they have always dreamed about.

POSTED ON NOVEMBER 6, 2020 AT 3:36 PM
WINDERMERE WINDSOR | CATEGORY: BLOG, BUYERS, ECONOMY, FUN FACTS, HOME PRICE APPRECIATION, HOUSING TRENDS, MARKET | TAGGED DREAM HOME, EQUITY GROWTH, HIGH EQUITY, HIGHER-END PROPERTIES, INCREASED ACTIVITY, LOW INTEREST RATES, PURCHASE

Uncategorized • October 30, 2020

New Market Report

by Kelsey Vandemark

Brand New Market Report

The latest quarterly report from our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is now available. Here is a quote from the report with his take on the Front Range economy:

What a difference a quarter makes! Following the massive job losses Colorado experienced starting in February—the state shed over 342,000 positions between February and April—the turnaround has been palpable.

Through August, Colorado has recovered 178,000 of the jobs lost due to COVID-19, adding 107,500 jobs over the past three months, an increase of 4.2%.

All regions saw a significant number of jobs returning. The most prominent was in the Denver metropolitan service area (MSA), where 78,800 jobs returned in the quarter.

Although employment in all markets is recovering, there is still a way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels.

The recovery in jobs has naturally led the unemployment rate to drop: the state is now at a respectable 6.7%, down from a peak of 12.2%.

Regionally, all areas continue to see their unemployment rates contract. I would note that the Fort Collins and Boulder MSA unemployment rates are now below 6%.

Cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, which is troubling, but rising rates have only slowed—not stopped—the economic recovery. Moreover, it has had no noticeable impact on the state’s housing market.

To receive a complimentary copy of the latest Gardner Report, simply reach out to us and we will send it to you right away.

POSTED ON OCTOBER 30, 2020 AT 4:27 PM
WINDERMERE WINDSOR | CATEGORY: BLOG, ECONOMY, FUN FACTS, HOUSING TRENDS, MARKET NEWS, MARKET UPDATE | TAGGED CHIEF ECONOMIST, COVID-19, FRONT RANGE ECONOMY, HOUSING MARKET, JOB LOSS, METROPOLITAN SERVICE AREA, QUARTERLY REPORT, RECOVERED, TURNAROUND, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Uncategorized • October 20, 2020

Luxury Market Activity Increases

by Kelsey Vandemark

Million Plussing

The luxury market is very active right now. Buyers in the high-end are taking advantage of low interest rates and the equity they have built in their prior homes.

Closings of million-plus single family homes are up significantly along the Front Range.

When compared to this same time last year, sales of properties in this price range are up:

87% in Metro Denver
150% in Larimer County
67% in Weld County

Windermere Real Estate in Colorado recently hosted a private online event for our clients with our very own Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We would be happy to send you the recording if you would like.

POSTED ON OCTOBER 16, 2020 AT 3:09 PM
WINDERMERE WINDSOR | CATEGORY: BLOG, BUYERS, FUN FACTS, LUXURY REAL ESTATE | TAGGED ACTIVE, ADVANTAGE, EQUITY, INTEREST RATES, LUXURY MARKET, MILLION-PLUS

Uncategorized • October 10, 2020

“Housing Bubble”- Are We In One?

by Kelsey Vandemark

The activity in the Front Range market is causing us to hear the bubble question again.

People are curious to know, based on recent growth in price appreciation, if we are in a housing bubble.

This question seems to crop up when prices go up.

While we do not believe that the current double-digit price appreciation is sustainable, we firmly believe we will not see prices crash or see any kind of a bubble bursting.

Here’s why we think that…

This past Tuesday we hosted a private online event for our clients which featured our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

Matthew is well-known and well-respected in the industry. He is often quoted in leading real estate publications.

He sees four reasons why there is no real estate bubble that is about to pop in Colorado.

Inventory is (incredibly) low. The number of homes for sale is down over 40% compared to last year. The market is drastically under-supplied. Based on simple economic principles of supply and demand, inventory would need to grow significantly for prices to drop.
Buyers’ credit scores are very high. The average credit score for buyers last month, for example was 759. So, by definition, average buyers today have excellent credit which means there is low risk of them walking away from their mortgage and causing a foreclosure crisis.
Buyers have high down payments. On average, buyers are putting 18% down on their purchases. This means that prices would need to fall by a considerable amount in order for the average buyer to be ‘upside down’ on their mortgage.
Owners are equity rich. Well over a third of property owners along the Front Range have more than 50% equity in their homes. This means that a severe economic downturn causing a slew of distressed properties to hit the market is highly unlikely.

Bottom line, as Matthew Gardner reminded us, what we are experiencing in the economy today is a health crisis not a housing crisis.

If you would like a recording of the private webinar we would be happy to send it to you. Just reach out and let me know.

POSTED ON OCTOBER 9, 2020 AT 7:54 PM
WINDERMERE WINDSOR | CATEGORY: BUYERS & SELLERS, ECONOMY, HOUSING TRENDS, MARKET NEWS | TAGGED APPRECIATION, CHIEF ECONOMIST, EQUITY RICH, FRONT RAGE MARKET, HEALTH CRISIS, HIGH CREDIT SCORES, HIGH DOWN PAYMENTS, HOUSING BUBBLE, HOUSING CRISIS, INCREASE IN PRICES, INDUSTRY, LOW INVENTORY, MATTHEW GARDNER, PRICE CRASH, SUPPLY & DEMAND, SUSTAINABLE, UNDER SUPPLY

Days of Inventory

Days of Inventory

Unemployment Is Bouncing Back

Job Bounce

Where are Interest Rates heading?

Rate Heading

Inverted- Closings Are Exceeding New Listings

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Interest Rates Drop Again

14 Times

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A Little Perspective Regarding Inventory

A Little Perspective

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Activity Increases In Higher Price Ranges

The Votes Are In

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New Market Report

Brand New Market Report

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Luxury Market Activity Increases

Million Plussing

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“Housing Bubble”- Are We In One?

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